The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 103, July 1999 - April, 2000 Page: 151
554 p. : ill. (some col.), maps, ports. ; 23 cm.View a full description of this periodical.
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1999 LyndonJohnson, Foreign Policy, and the Election of z96o
stantly finished third behind Kennedy and Stevenson with 11 to 15 per-
cent in samplings of the likely Democratic candidates. According to
these polls, Johnson was much stronger at the regional level. He had a
strong lead in the South, and according to other studies had firm con-
trol of the Texas state Democratic delegation."
With these factors in mind, Johnson and his staff developed a strategy
for an indirect campaign. Using this approach, he would not make an
open campaign effort in the state primaries like Kennedy. Instead, he
would work to build a solid regional voting block, which he would use at
the Democratic national convention to deny his rival a first-ballot victo-
ry. He would also stay in Washington during the week and continue to
work on legislation, but during the weekends he would travel across the
country, making public appearances as an unannounced candidate.
During these speaking trips, he developed contacts with delegates that
he would need if he was to claim a victory on a later ballot.
Winning in the general election would be easier, given the critical
importance of the South. Even though three Gallup polls indicated that
Johnson would lose to Nixon with percentages ranging between forty-
four to forty-six of the voters, Johnson and his staff dismissed these find-
ings because of his strength in the South. His staff conducted an analysis
of his strength in the electoral college against Nixon, and figured he
had the solid support of twenty-four western and southern states worth
202 votes. Since a candidate needed 269 to win, Johnson had to find
only sixty-seven votes in the other twenty-six states. Indeed, in mid-May
an Orlando Sentinel editorial declared: "Sen. Lyndon Johnson is the only
man who could carry the South solidly. Therefore he is the only
Democrat who could beat Mr. Nixon."''
At the time, many contemporary political observers thought this
approach was working. In February 1960, Allen Duckworth, the political
editor of the Dallas Morning News, wrote that too much emphasis was
being placed on the primaries. Yes, he admitted, Kennedy had done well
"Mar. 16, 196o poll, Apr 22, 1960 poll, In ibid, 1659, 1664; the Texas polls can be found in
Houston Post, July 6, 1959, Aug. io, 1959, and May 1o, 196o; for an in-depth analysis of
Johnson's strength in the state see the article by the paper's Washington bureau chief in ibid.,
Jan 31, 1960
'2 Mar. 30, 1960 poll, Apr 29, 1960 poll,June 15, 1960 poll, in Gallup, The Gallup Poll, 166o,
1665, 1673; Memo, "Analysis of Electoral Votes, undated; and Memo, "Senator Johnson's
Electoral Strength," undated, Analysis of Electoral Votes Folder, Box 2, Johnson for President
Series P [B], Papers of John Connally (Lyndon Baines Johnson Presidential Library; cited here-
after as LBJL). According to these two memos, Johnson had the votes of the following states:
Alabama (11), Alaska (3), Arizona (4), Arkansas (4), Delaware (3), Florida (lo), Georgia (12),
Hawaii (3), Kentucky (1o), Louisiana (1o), Maryland (9), Mississippi (8), Missouri (13), Nevada
(3), New Mexico (4), North Carolina (14), Oklahoma (8), South Carolina (8), Tennessee (11),
Texas (24), Utah (3), Virginia (lz), West Virginia (8) and Wyoming (3) for a total of 198;
Orlando Sentinel, May 12, 196o (quotation).151
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Texas State Historical Association. The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 103, July 1999 - April, 2000, periodical, 2000; Austin, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth101220/m1/187/: accessed April 27, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting Texas State Historical Association.